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Seth Abramson@SethAbramson · Oct 30, 2017

(THREAD) It's now almost certain Papadopoulos *wore a wire* during the last 90+ days. Here are the implications. Hope…

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Summary

Analysis suggests George Papadopoulos likely wore a wire for the FBI during the 90+ days between his arrest and guilty plea in October 2017, indicating he had significant access to top Trump officials and was far more central to the campaign than publicly portrayed. The most likely targets of his wired cooperation were figures like Sam Clovis or Jeff Sessions rather than lower-level operatives, suggesting Mueller's investigation had broader implications than initially understood.

Summarized by ThreadOut AI from the full thread. May miss nuance — read the thread below.

  1. #1

    (THREAD) It's now almost certain Papadopoulos *wore a wire* during the last 90+ days. Here are the implications. Hope you'll read and share.

  2. #2

    1/ The FBI arrested Papadopoulos on July 27th, 2017.

  3. #3

    2/ Papadopoulos plead guilty to Making False Statements on October 5th, 2017.

  4. #4

    3/ At the time Papadopoulos pled guilty, the government requested that his guilty plea be "sealed"—invisible to the general public.

  5. #5

    4/ Here's the relevant language:

  6. #6

    5/ "Proactive cooperator" in this context means someone who is willing and able to wear a wire to help the government get more information.

  7. #7

    6/ So Papadopoulos was wired up, at the latest, between October 5 and today, October 30. But he could have started cooperating before then.

  8. #8

    7/ Prosecutors often require a defendant to perform cooperative services for the government well in *advance* of his or her formal plea.

  9. #9

    8/ The reason for this is that—via both "proffer" and sometimes actual performance—a defendant must show they're of value to the government.

  10. #10

    9/ So there is *every* reason to think that Papadopoulos was wired for sound not long after his arrest on July 27th, 2017 at Dulles airport.

  11. #11

    10/ For Papadopoulos to get his October 5th plea, one of two things had to be true: (a) the feds had already got good sound from him; or...

  12. #12

    11/ ...(b) he'd made a sufficient proffer establishing that he *could* get good sound for them—valuable evidence—shortly after October 5th.

  13. #13

    12/ If the former, Papadopoulos gave Mueller evidence he now holds that's of critical importance to his investigation—sound from higher-ups.

  14. #14

    13/ If the latter, it means Papadopoulos convinced law enforcement that he *still has access to people who were/are high up on Team Trump*.

  15. #15

    14/ Here's the KEY point: EITHER WAY, it means the White House is dissembling when it says that Papadopoulos was a minor Team Trump figure.

  16. #16

    15/ In fact, Papadopoulos still had *consequential access to top Trump officials* this *October*—18+ months after he came aboard Team Trump.

  17. #17

    16/ So news of "proactive cooperation" means Mueller has more than we know *and* Papadopoulos was *far* more critical than we're being told.

  18. #18

    17/ And if he was more involved than we know, the likelihood is that he pled to Making False Statements—and not more—for the sake of a deal.

  19. #19

    18/ In other words—contrary to what some say now—it's likely Papadopoulos did more and told the feds more than his current charge suggests.

  20. #20

    19/ Note his affidavit actually *says*, "This does not include all the facts known to me regarding this offense." And of *course* that's so.

  21. #21

    20/ Papadopoulos would have had to promise the feds a *senior* Trump official in order to warrant getting a plea deal now. Page wouldn't do.

  22. #22

    21/ (I'm putting aside the possibility, admittedly a slim one, that what Mueller wanted and Papadopoulos offered was just Russian sources.)

  23. #23

    22/ (I doubt any Russians would've spoken to Papadopoulos post-Russia probe—but if so, he certainly had a nice email contact list to offer.)

  24. #24

    23/ So if Page wouldn't have been a good enough "get" for the feds to wire Papadopoulos and give him an early plea deal, who would've been?

  25. #25

    24/ Well, consider all this—Sam Clovis had hired him; current AG Jeff Sessions was his supervisor; and Paul Manafort was another supervisor.

  26. #26

    25/ Would Mueller have used Papadopoulos to get Manafort, who he had on other charges? No—unless Manafort could give good sound on others.

  27. #27

    26/ So the two most likely people for Papadopoulos to have spoken to over the last 90 days while wearing a wire are (a) Clovis (b) Sessions.

  28. #28

    27/ I've said here Sessions is one of the key targets of the Russia probe—though now that he's AG and "recused" he might avoid Papadopoulos.

  29. #29

    28/ So far and away the most likely "get" off Papadopoulos would be Sam Clovis—Trump's liaison to his Foreign Policy/National Security team.

  30. #30

    29/ It's worth noting that (a) Clovis went to ground months ago, and (b) Trump offered Clovis a cushy job he had no business at all getting.

  31. #31

    30/ Trump nominated Clovis—who is *not a scientist*—to be top scientist at the USDA. He's awaiting confirmation now. farmfutures.com/usda/controver…