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Prof. Bonk 🇺🇦 Perverse & Unintended Consequences@actfast · Oct 21, 2026

🧵Ukraine just won its biggest offensive of the year by keeping it a secret from its own army. Commander Biletskyi…

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Summary

Ukraine achieved a major military victory by secretly concealing an offensive from its own forces to prevent leaks, resulting in the destruction of Russia's 144th Division and the capture of 270 soldiers. Meanwhile, Russia responded to its defeats with propaganda, promoting failed generals and redirecting massive budget resources to military spending while cutting healthcare and social services.

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  1. #1

    🧵Ukraine just won its biggest offensive of the year by keeping it a secret from its own army. Commander Biletskyi banned his officers from logging their advance on their battlefield app because it leaked. 1/🧵

  2. #2

    In Russia, paranoia is equally insane: Moscow just arrested two men for running a train-spotting website because photos of Putin’s armored train are now classified as "critical infrastructure." While Putin hid his train, Ukraine hid an entire offensive. 2/

  3. #3

    The secret target was Russia’s 144th Division, holding the pincer meant to encircle Donetsk. When Operation Vivaldi ended, the division was smashed out of existence. 270 Russian soldiers were taken prisoner: an entire passenger train of POWs in one stroke. 3/

  4. #4

    How did Moscow explain losing an entire division? Russian state TV claimed the front stabilized after a successful "media counteroffensive." In reality, the Defense Ministry was declaring the liberation of villages Russian troops had never set foot in. 4/

  5. #5

    Even Russian war correspondents called out the fraud. Commanders sent dozens of troops on literal suicide missions into Ukrainian lines just to raise a flag, film a 10-second video for state TV, and die immediately after. 5/

  6. #6

    While Moscow filmed fake videos, Ukrainian drones set St. Petersburg’s oil terminals, VK data centers, and power grids ablaze. State TV gave the burning metropolis 30 seconds of airtime, then spent over an hour on a single burning car in Paris. 6/

  7. #7

    When asked why air raid sirens didn't sound over St. Petersburg, officials admitted that turning them on would "cause panic." In Rostov, the governor told citizens that if a siren sounds, they should check their smartphones to see if it’s actually real. 7/

  8. #8

    In Moscow's war machine, catastrophic failure is rewarded. Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who lost Lyman in 2022, was confirmed as Vice Premier of Tatarstan in an 87-to-1 vote. His new job: running support for veterans of the war he helped lose. 8/

  9. #9

    While failing generals get cabinet seats, Russia’s 2027 budget channels 35% of all national spending into defense, slashing healthcare, social policy, and education. Regional governments even cut burial payouts for dead soldiers from 2 million rubles to 100,000. 9/

  10. #10

    To fund the war, Russia’s budget arithmetic matches taking the US defense budget, adding Social Security and Medicare to it, and telling hospitals to read the memo. Meanwhile, Ukraine spent the night burning the Druzhba oil pipeline 230 miles inside Russia. 10/

  11. #11

    At sea, Russia reflagged shadow fleet tankers with gemstone names like "Sapphire" and "Jet," wrapping their decks in chicken wire cages to protect against suicide drones. Luck is cheaper than air defense, and Moscow has priced both. 11/

  12. #12

    The ultimate contrast played out near the Oskil River. After a drone strike wounded both his legs behind enemy lines, Ukrainian infantryman Kostiantyn Vlasenko self-amputated his lower limbs to survive. Nobody marked him on a map. He held his position for 491 days. 12/

  13. #13

    He deployed before football season started and returned in week 7 of the next one. A heavy hexacopter drone flew into hostile territory and executed the first-ever battlefield rescue of a soldier by air, pulling him out from the one angle Russia wasn't watching. 13/

  14. #14

    Moscow fakes victories for TV, arrests train-spotters, and promotes defeated generals. Ukraine keeps real wins off the map until the job is done and leaves no man behind. The Full Report: 14/🧵 professorbonk.substack.com/p/ukraine-wipe…