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Prof. Bonk 🇺🇦 Perverse & Unintended Consequences@actfast · Oct 3, 2026

🧵On Thursday, Kyiv fired its first homemade ballistic missile under fire, set Stalingrad ablaze, and wiped out 1% of…

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Summary

Ukraine has deployed its first homemade ballistic missile (FP-7) and launched successful strikes on Russian oil refineries, destroying approximately 1% of Russia's GDP in a week. Russia is struggling to defend its vast territory with inadequate air defense while facing mounting financial strain, with regional budgets slashing veteran benefits even as the Kremlin maintains aggressive rhetoric.

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  1. #1

    🧵On Thursday, Kyiv fired its first homemade ballistic missile under fire, set Stalingrad ablaze, and wiped out 1% of Russia's GDP in a single week. Moscow is now attempting to defend eleven time zones with local police and volunteer watches. 1/🧵

  2. #2

    At 4:30 AM, Ukrainian channels asked Russians: "Volgograd, Voronezh, who is awake?" 20 minutes later came the answer: "Stalingrad... preliminarily, the refinery got lit." Russia renames cities for ceremonies. Ukrainian drones just found a ceremonial use of their own. 2/

  3. #3

    Governor Bocharov claimed a massive attack on industrial infrastructure resulted only in an apartment fire. Asked what burned at the Lukoil refinery, officials said only the governor could comment. Refineries are hard to spot: they are only the size of a town. 3/

  4. #4

    On Thursday, Ukraine fired its first homemade ballistic missile, the FP-7, built under fire. Asked for the target, Kyiv offered two words: "We’re not telling." The designer managed two words and a parenthesis: "Congratulations FP7)." 4/

  5. #5

    Moscow claims the new Ukrainian missile never left the test range, but TV channels boast 3 Russian systems can shoot it down. It's the logic of a man denying his dog bit you: insisting the dog is stuffed, while boasting he has 3 ways to shoot it. 5/

  6. #6

    Next came Samara's oil hub. Airports 700 miles away shut down as Ukraine delivered sanctions with a flight time. Moscow reported stopping 873 Ukrainian drones in 24 hours. A fire department reporting 873 fires put out isn't bragging. It's hinting that you move. 6/

  7. #7

    Russian military channels admit the sky is now defended by volunteer detachments, border guards, and local police. It is a neighborhood watch trying to guard against hundreds of drones, and the neighborhood spans eleven time zones. 7/

  8. #8

    Asked at Valdai if he'd agree to an energy truce, Putin answered: "No." By morning, Samara was burning. Putin admitted refinery strikes cost Russia 1% of GDP, then raged that a navy-less country hit 40 warships: "Take this grenade from a Soviet soldier, you fascist." 8/

  9. #9

    With Black Sea diesel exports dropping to absolute zero, US diesel hit $6.53/gal. Trump demanded Kyiv stop hitting refineries. Foreign Minister Sybiha gave Ukraine's terms: an energy ceasefire AND a Black Sea ceasefire. Sold as a set, no substitutions. 9/

  10. #10

    Ex-Kremlin MP Oleg Tsarev warned Russia not to celebrate a pause: "The pause rests on Trump's interest, not Kyiv's goodwill. Protect the refineries as if there were no pause." Meanwhile, Kremlin officials threatened EU arms factories as "potential military targets." 10/

  11. #11

    When Russia tried to respond to NATO at sea, border guards merely stopped a Swedish cargo ship in the Gulf of Finland. Peter the Great built Russia a navy. Three hundred years later, Russia’s grand answer to NATO at sea is a passport check. 11/

  12. #12

    Russian drones also crashed in Moldova. Ambassador Ozerov claimed Moscow was ready to investigate the wreckage labeled 'Geran-4' together with Moldova, complaining Chisinau showed no enthusiasm. The wreckage lies in Moldova. Moscow would love to help look into it. 12/

  13. #13

    Behind the threats lies financial collapse. Regional budgets show Saratov slashed payouts for a killed soldier from 1,000,000 rubles to 100,000. Yet Saratov pays 450,000 rubles to convicts who sign up. Official Russian state math: 1 living convict = 4.5 dead sons. 13/

  14. #14

    From drafting infants for formula cans to valuing living convicts over dead sons, Moscow’s war effort is a self-devouring theater. Kyiv is launching homemade missiles, burning 1% of Russia's GDP, and letting Moscow count the wreckage. Full Report: 14/🧵 professorbonk.substack.com/p/ukraines-dro…