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Mikhail Khodorkovsky@khodorkovsky_en · Sep 17, 2026

Imagine your leader takes 300k students and engineers to war without announcing it. That's Putin's plan. I know him, I…

16 tweets2 min read♥ 3.1Koriginal

Summary

A Russia expert warns that Putin plans to quietly mobilize 300,000 students and engineers without announcement, believing Western support for Ukraine will collapse within two years. Putin's calculation relies on China's continued supplies, the assumption Trump will reach a deal with him, and that Russia can sustain the war economically and socially until 2027, though his approval ratings are already declining due to the conflict's costs.

Summarized by ThreadOut AI from the full thread. May miss nuance — read the thread below.

  1. #1

    Imagine your leader takes 300k students and engineers to war without announcing it. That's Putin's plan. I know him, I paid with 10 years for opposing him. 🧵Follow me and read on

  2. #2

    I am absolutely sure Putin needs a mobilization. To rotate his troops alone he needs 300,000 more men, and this war now demands educated people: by my estimate, half of them would have to be students and engineers. It does not need to be announced. It will simply take place. [2/16]

  3. #3

    If he were pragmatic, Putin would stop this war as soon as possible. My impression is that many of his recent decisions have not been based on pragmatism at all. The West keeps assuming he is looking for a way out. Very likely he is not looking for one. [3/16]

  4. #4

    His position toward the West, in plain words: "You Europeans will stop supporting Ukraine in six months. You Americans will not use force against me. I will talk to you politely. I don't want a fight. But I will keep doing what I want. And who are you anyway?" [4/16]

  5. #5

    Here is how it looks inside Putin's head: Ukraine is tired, the West is tired; Germany will get a new government, if not today then tomorrow, and it will stop supporting Ukraine. France follows next year. So he only has to hold on a little longer and everything will be fine. [5/16]

  6. #6

    He is paying a price for this at home. History shows that Russians tolerate an unsuccessful war for no more than two years. Putin did everything he could to keep that clock from starting. Since Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries and depots this year, the countdown is running. [6/16]

  7. #7

    Since February, approval of the war has risen seven points in reaction to the Ukrainian strikes. Putin's own approval has collapsed. In the past the two rose together. Now they move in opposite directions, and if the fighting continues past 2027, his rating will fall much further. [7/16]

  8. #8

    Almost the entire Russian elite is against the war. But without a dramatic defeat on the battlefield, Putin does not have to fear this elite much. Falling ratings shift power to the security forces who keep society under control. A rule can rest on them, but for Putin that is uncomfortable. [8/16]

  9. #9

    The Duma election runs from September 18 to 20, and the mood was readable before it. The anti-war party Yabloko was allowed on the ballot because the Kremlin expected it to get one or two percent. Within two weeks its support shot up so fast that the Kremlin was frightened. [9/16]

  10. #10

    By our calculations Yabloko was suddenly at ten percent and could have risen to 20 or 25, mainly on protest votes. In a democracy that is not a critical mass. In a dictatorship it is a very strong signal, and the Kremlin feared it would become public. So Yabloko was taken off the ballot. [10/16]

  11. #11

    The economy will not stop him either. Oil and gas revenues still buy what Russia needs in China. Infrastructure is not maintained: barges sink, pipelines explode, heating fails in winter, five-storey buildings collapse. It is getting worse, but it will not be critical within two years. [11/16]

  12. #12

    The only economic factor that could put an end to this war is the absence of supplies from China. As long as China continues to supply Russia, the situation can deteriorate endlessly, and Putin can still continue the war. [12/16]

  13. #13

    Modi and Tokayev have criticized the war in public. Those words do not mean much. Strategic perspectives do not interest Putin now; he is fixated on winning. He has learned the names of small Ukrainian villages like Mala Tokmachka and has not bothered to learn the Kazakh president's patronymic. [13/16]

  14. #14

    So far I have not mentioned the Americans. That is exactly how it looks in Putin's head: there are no Americans out there. He thinks, "I will always find a common language with Trump." If Trump changed his position, the entire picture would change at once. [14/16]

  15. #15

    The impression today is that the aid could stop tomorrow. Europe has to find the strength to actually show Putin what it always says: we will support Ukraine as long as necessary, we have decided on rearmament and will carry it out, and in two years we will produce more weapons than Russia. [15/16]

  16. #16

    Then his psychological state would look completely different. He would think: my God, I have to end this war as soon as possible, otherwise it is my end. Until then, the students and engineers go to the front, and nobody announces it. From an interview with @handelsblatt — read in full: handelsblatt.com/politik/intern… [16/16]