Skip to content
ThreadOut
GURGAVIN@gurgavin · Oct 11, 2026

1/ I WONDERED WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU JUST BUY THE BEST PERFORMING STOCK FROM THE YEAR BEFORE AND DO IT EVERY SINGLE YEAR…

5 tweets1 min read♥ 7.3Koriginal

Summary

A backtesting analysis shows that buying the best-performing stock from the previous year and holding it for a year generated $176,114 from $100 over 15 years, vastly outperforming the S&P 500's $800. Over 30 years, this strategy yielded $89,418, but adding a 35% stop-loss mechanism dramatically improved results to $1,514,581 while reducing drawdowns.

Summarized by ThreadOut AI from the full thread. May miss nuance — read the thread below.

  1. #1

    1/ I WONDERED WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU JUST BUY THE BEST PERFORMING STOCK FROM THE YEAR BEFORE AND DO IT EVERY SINGLE YEAR SO I BACKTESTED IT GOING BACK 15 YEARS STARTING WITH $100 IN 2012: END RESULTS S&P 500 → $800 LAST YEAR'S WINNER → $176,114

  2. #2

    2/ IT BEAT THE S&P 500 IN 11 OF THE LAST 15 YEARS THE BIG YEARS: $AMD +148% IN 2019, $NVDA +171% IN 2024, $PLTR +135% IN 2025 AND $SNDK +566% THIS YEAR

  3. #3

    3/ HERE IS EVERY WINNER SINCE 2012 THIS YEAR'S LEADER SO FAR IS $MRNA UP 663% IF THE PATTERN HOLDS IT MIGHT BE THE STOCK TO OWN IN 2027

  4. #4

    4/ NOW LET’S GO BACK 30 YEARS STARTING WITH $100 IN 1997 INVESTING IN S&P 500 -> $1,752 INVESTING IN THE LAST YEAR’S WINNERS -> $89,418 BUT IT FELL 97% FROM 1999 TO 2011 AND TOOK 23 YEARS TO GET BACK ABOVE ITS 1999 HIGH

  5. #5

    4/ NOW LETS ADD SOME SAFE GUARDS WHAT IF WE ADD A STOP LOSS? IF THE STOCK FALLS 35% BELOW WHAT WE PAID, WE SELL AND SIT IN CASH UNTIL JANUARY LAST 30 YEARS, STARTING WITH $100: S&P 500 -> $1,752 LAST YEAR’S WINNERS -> $89,418 LAST YEAR’S WINNERS + 35% STOP -> $1,514,581