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Mikhail Khodorkovsky@khodorkovsky_en · Aug 18, 2026

I once ran Russia's largest oil company. Here is what Ukraine's strikes are really doing to oil refineries — and why…

8 tweets1 min read♥ 4Koriginal

Summary

A former Russian oil executive explains how Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are causing cumulative, irreparable damage by forcing Russia to skip proper repairs and maintenance, patch damaged units repeatedly, and compromise fuel quality, with the structural integrity of aging infrastructure now in question and potential catastrophic failure of fuel storage tanks threatening nearby residential areas.

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  1. #1

    I once ran Russia's largest oil company. Here is what Ukraine's strikes are really doing to oil refineries — and why the damage may soon become irreparable. (🧵Read on and follow for more)

  2. #2

    In the West the debate continues: is Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries actually working, or does Russia simply repair the damage? The gasoline lines across Russia suggest one answer and what is happening inside the plants confirms it. [2/8]

  3. #3

    Real repair of a plant hit with tens and hundreds of kilograms of explosives means shutting it down and replacing the damaged units. Russia is doing the opposite: halting maintenance to squeeze out more fuel, and swapping quality gasoline for low-grade fuel that ruins engines. [3/8]

  4. #4

    Meanwhile, every fire that burns around a refinery unit lowers its structural strength: its ability to hold weight, pressure, temperature. Measuring that loss would require stopping the units for serious studies. Nobody is stopping them so nobody in Russia actually knows. [4/8]

  5. #5

    Not a single specialist can tell you which strike will be the last. Patches on top of patches on top of patches, until one day they give out. [5/8]

  6. #6

    Here is what I remember from my years in the industry: many storage tanks stand on rises, placed so fuel drains downhill by gravity. A tank hit several times can lose its structural strength in a single minute — the fuel spills out all at once and flows downhill. [6/8]

  7. #7

    Over the years, people have built below them — dacha plots, entire neighborhoods. My warning to Russians living there, one no official will give them: if that tank has already burned once, think very seriously before going near it. Spilled fuel is an instant before death. [7/8]

  8. #8

    I break down the whole picture in more detail on Substack — check it out and subscribe here (it's free): blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/can-ukraine-… [8/8]