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John Hudson@John_Hudson · Mar 7, 2026

NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18…

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Summary

A classified National Intelligence Council report involving all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that even a large-scale military assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched clerical and military establishment, with succession protocols designed to preserve power continuity. The report contradicts Trump's stated plan to 'clean out' Iran's leadership and install a preferred ruler, finding Iran's fragmented opposition unlikely to seize control even if the regime were destabilized.

Summarized by ThreadOut AI from the full thread. May miss nuance — read the thread below.

  1. #1

    NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵

  2. #2

    The report outlined succession scenarios resulting from either a short or extended U.S. military campaign. In both cases, it concluded the clerical and military establishment would respond to Khamenei's killing by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power...

  3. #3

    The report says the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely,” raising doubts about Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing

  4. #4

    Trump could play kingmaker if the regime were to crumble, but the NIC report does not view the establishment’s hold on power as brittle

  5. #5

    U.S. spy agencies’ doubts about Iran’s opposition seizing power have been referenced in the NYT and WSJ. The NIC’s involvement, and its analyses of the potential outcomes of small- and large-scale offensives, have not been previously reported.

  6. #6

    WH spox Anna Kelly says “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”

  7. #7

    NEW: U.S. Intelligence report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime. By @wstrobel and me. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…