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Rory Stewart@RoryStewartUK · Mar 6, 2025

1/ Trump has been conned by Putin. Russia isn’t a global superpower—its GDP (~$2 trillion) is smaller than Italy’s and…

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Summary

Trump has reportedly been misled about Russia's actual power—its economy is smaller than Italy's, it faces demographic collapse, and Putin's superpower status is largely a propaganda fiction built on disinformation campaigns. Russia's failed Ukraine invasion exposed these weaknesses, forcing Putin to rely on other nations, making Trump a last-ditch attempt to legitimize Russian imperial ambitions.

Summarized by ThreadOut AI from the full thread. May miss nuance — read the thread below.

  1. #1

    1/ Trump has been conned by Putin. Russia isn’t a global superpower—its GDP (~$2 trillion) is smaller than Italy’s and about 1/15 the size of the US. 🧵

  2. #2

    2/ Russia is in demographic freefall—losing around half a million people a year since 2019—its economy is rigid, its living standards appalling, and its most talented people have left.

  3. #3

    3/ Putin’s military prestige was built up on low-cost interventions (think Crimea and Syria) often relying on private military companies (think Wagner). And on using bots, trolls and fellow-travellers to feed a story of Russian power to undermine the confidence of the West.

  4. #4

    4/ But Putin’s “superpower” status is only a fiction - the result of a deliberate Russian propaganda campaign, enabled by social media platforms and by the collapse of Western confidence and trust. ,

  5. #5

    5/ Putin’s bluff went wrong when he failed to sweep through Ukraine. Since then Putin has had to flatter North Korea for its soldiers, Iran for his drones, and follow the direction of Beijing for his economic survival.

  6. #6

    6/ Now Russian intelligence see an opportunity. They have concluded that Trump is naive and isolated enough to believe that Putin has the power to invade and occupy the old Russian Empire and the old Soviet Bloc. And that he has the right to do so.

  7. #7

    Trump is Putin’s Hail Mary - his last and only chance.

  8. #8

    8/ Putin’s will now feed Trump’s addiction to spectacle, and social media . And exploit his + Vance’s lack of interest in the world outside the USA. His strategy is psychological, —exploiting Western passivity, confusion, and poor judgment. But the facts don’t change.

  9. #9

    Russia isn’t Stalin’s USSR. Russia is a relatively small economy - 1/12 of Europe combined. Russia is not a super-power and only Trump can - or would be naive enough - to turn it into one.