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eye zen hour 🥶@eyezenhour · Nov 14, 2024

The FBI just raided this 26-year-old's apartment. His crime? Building a website predicting Trump's win better than…

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Summary

The FBI raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's apartment for building a prediction market platform. The thread argues prediction markets are superior forecasting tools that even government agencies use, and that decentralized blockchain-based systems like Polymarket cannot be permanently shut down through raids.

Summarized by ThreadOut AI from the full thread. May miss nuance — read the thread below.

  1. #1

    The FBI just raided this 26-year-old's apartment. His crime? Building a website predicting Trump's win better than every poll in the world. They tried to shut him down. Instead, they made him a legend. Here's why it made him more unstoppable than ever:🧵

  2. #2

    Meet Shayne Coplan, founder & CEO of @Polymarket Yesterday, FBI agents stormed his home, seizing his phone and electronics His crime? Building a website where people bet on future events The raid might be a blessing in disguise for him Here's why:

  3. #3

    Read the room - People are sick of big-govt overstepping Polymarket dominated election predictions Now, it's become a bigger pop culture rebel after this raid publicity Shayne has raised $70M from Vitalik & Thiel's VC firm, Founders Fund He's not going anywhere ⤵️

  4. #4

    Prediction markets aren't just gambling sites They're the most accurate forecasting tools ever created How accurate? • Better than polls • Better than expert predictions • Better than government forecasts The numbers are staggering...

  5. #5

    These markets predicted: • 90% of election outcomes • Major scientific breakthroughs • Economic crashes • Global events Traditional forecasting tools? They got half of these wrong But here's where it gets interesting:

  6. #6

    The U.S. Gov uses prediction markets themselves - DARPA spent millions studying them - The CIA uses them to forecast global events Yet they're raiding innovators for building the same thing The truth? Prediction markets are unstoppable...

  7. #7

    Why? Because they're just math and code You can't raid an equation. You can't arrest an algorithm You can't shut down decentralized networks Polymarket was brilliantly designed as a layer 2 blockchain on #Ethereum The market makers learned from crypto:

  8. #8

    • No central servers • No company headquarters • No single point of failure Just pure information flow This isn't about gambling — it's about the future of forecasting Want to shut down a prediction market? Here's what happens:

  9. #9

    They're like a hydra: Cut off one head, two more appear Prediction markets reveal uncomfortable truths: • About elections • About economics • About human behavior A crystal ball algorithm clearly feels threatening to people in power

  10. #10

    That's why they're feared That's why they're fought That's why they'll win And Shayne's raid? Will he be arrested? What's next?

  11. #11

    His phone is gone. Whatever If he's arrested, Trump will pardon him with Ross Ulbricht But his code lives on. Dozens of others are building alongside him too The future is already here. It just isn't evenly distributed yet And no raid can stop that. So, what happens next?

  12. #12

    The next wave of prediction markets will be: • Fully decentralized • Run by DAOs • Immune to raids Think crypto in 2009. Think torrents in 2001. Think the internet in 1995. The cat's out of the bag:

  13. #13

    Every time authorities shut one down, the code gets: • More resilient • More distributed • More unstoppable Just like they couldn't stop BitTorrent... Just like they couldn't stop Bitcoin... They won't stop this

  14. #14

    The final irony? The same agencies raiding prediction markets today will be using them tomorrow Because when it comes to seeing the future, nothing beats the wisdom of mass populations Remember this moment

  15. #15

    Years from now, people will ask: "Where were you when prediction markets went mainstream?" Some will say: "I watched them get raided" Others will say: "I helped build them" Which side of history will you be on?

  16. #16

    Thanks for reading. If you enjoyed this: 1. Follow me @eyezenhour for more thought-provoking content 2. Repost this thread if you found it insightful

    eye zen hour 🥶@eyezenhour · Nov 14, 2024

    The FBI just raided this 26-year-old's apartment. His crime? Building a website predicting Trump's win better than every poll in the world. They tried to shut him down. Instead, they made him a legend. Here's why it made him more unstoppable than ever:🧵