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Kayode Makinde0

@Mkm_world · view on X ↗

AI/ML | Research | Data Science. Believer ✝️

2K followers
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Every thread by Kayode Makinde that readers unrolled on ThreadOut.

Aug 15, 2026
We spent months tracking 5,467 bets from Nigeria's biggest sports betting influencers. The bets were worth ~$4.8 million. We wanted to answer a simple question: If you followed their bets exactly, w...
SummaryResearchers tracked 5,467 bets worth $4.8M from Nigeria's top betting influencers and found that following their tips results in significant losses—a -38% average ROI for followers despite the influencers promoting only winning slips on social media. The data reveals survivorship bias, poor win rates (10.39% overall), and a perverse incentive structure where platforms pay affiliates based on betting volume regardless of whether bets win or lose.12 tweets1 min read