The Kobeissi Letter
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Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: support@thekobeissiletter.com
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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterThe UK's bond market is collapsing. Today, the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK hit 5.95%, its highest level since March 1998. Yields in the UK are now 15 TIMES above 2020 levels, with the highest borr...
SummaryUK bond yields hit their highest level since 1998 as energy inflation resurges amid geopolitical tensions, fiscal deterioration pushes government spending to post-WWII highs, and the Bank of England faces a challenging policy balancing act between fighting inflation and avoiding corporate bankruptcies. Global bond yields are similarly surging, signaling a shift toward monetary tightening and sustained inflation concerns throughout the 2020s.Sep 15, 202611 tweets♥ 8.7KThe Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterTalk about a turn of events. Oil prices are back above $100, PPI inflation is up to +5.4%, and President Trump is preparing potential $5,000 "dividends." Now, US long-term borrowing costs are up to...
SummaryUS Treasury bond yields have hit their highest levels since 2007 despite intervention attempts, driven by surging oil prices from ongoing conflict, persistent inflation above target for 60 months, and expectations of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts. The thread argues this signals structural economic failure requiring fundamental restructuring, positioning asset owners to benefit while those without assets face declining purchasing power.Sep 10, 202613 tweets♥ 4.7KThe Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterMost people don't realize what just happened. Nvidia just posted what we believe are the most impressive earnings in history, with market-wide implications. This implies $670+ BILLION in revenue nex...
SummaryNvidia posted record earnings with guidance implying $673 billion in revenue next year, representing unprecedented 2,400% growth since FY2022 and confirming AI is not just growing but accelerating rapidly. The company would become the 3rd largest by revenue globally, with potential for even greater growth if US-China trade restrictions are lifted, while the broader tech boom is driving inflation and widening wealth inequality.Aug 27, 202613 tweets♥ 3.8KThe Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterIt's official. On July 31st, we called for US government intervention as long-term borrowing costs hit 2008 levels. Today, it happened. The US Treasury is DOUBLING buybacks to $4 billion per operati...
SummaryThe US Treasury doubled its bond buyback program to $4 billion per operation to combat rising long-term borrowing costs, which have reached 2008 levels amid persistent inflation and record deficit spending. The intervention signals government concern about unsustainable interest payments (projected at $1.7 trillion annually by 2028) and suggests further market interventions may be coming as mortgage rates are expected to exceed 7%.Aug 19, 202612 tweets♥ 7.5KThe Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterThe bond market situation is crazy. While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007. Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and...
SummaryUS bond yields hit their highest levels since 2007 despite the Fed not raising rates, as the central bank shifts policy to let markets determine rates rather than relying on guidance. This comes amid record borrowing by the government and AI companies, consumer debt stress at decade-high delinquency rates, and the lowest consumer sentiment since 1952, creating economic headwinds even as major tech investments surge.Aug 1, 202613 tweets♥ 8KThe Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter