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Qasem Al-Ali

@AlaliQasem · view on X ↗

Covering global energy markets, geopolitics & capital flows. MSc Finance | CME | ICWIM | عضو جمعية الاقتصاد السعودية. Views are my own

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Qasem Al-Ali@AlaliQasem

JPMorgan just published the scariest oil chart I’ve ever seen. World inventories are in freefall. And when this line hits 6.8 — the global energy system doesn’t slow down. It breaks. 🧵 ...

SummaryJPMorgan analysis warns that global oil inventories are rapidly declining toward a critical 6.8 billion barrel threshold by September 2026, below which the physical infrastructure of refineries and pipelines would fail, potentially causing simultaneous repricing across all interconnected markets. The timeline projects an Iran war disruption in February 2026 and operational stress by June 2026, with unprecedented systemic risks as traditional market models cannot predict such infrastructure collapse scenarios.May 9, 20265 tweets♥ 5.8KQasem Al-Ali@AlaliQasem

The oil market just passed its breaking point. And it doesn’t matter if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow. Here’s why the damage is already done 🧵

SummaryThe oil market has reached a critical breaking point due to Strait of Hormuz closure, with cumulative storage losses of nearly 2 billion barrels by June that far exceed historical precedent. Even if a ceasefire occurs immediately, the logistics of offloading floating tankers and rerouting vessels will take months to resolve, creating an unprecedented supply crisis that could force the US to ban crude exports or face refinery shutdowns. The only solution is demand destruction on the scale of COVID lockdowns, as the market searches for an unknowable marginal price that prevents complete collapse.Apr 20, 20268 tweets♥ 8.3K